马斯克对经济学人：五年内AI超过人类智能总和

Zanny Minton Beddoes

埃隆·马斯克，非常感谢你来上 The Insider。谢谢你们让我们来到 Tesla Giga。不用最高级去介绍你几乎不可能。我觉得你现在对建造未来所做的，比任何在世的人都多。

Elon Musk, thank you so much for joining me on The Insider. Thank you for having us here at Tesla Giga. It is really hard to introduce you without using superlatives. I mean, you are doing, I think, more to build the future than literally anybody alive right now.

Elon Musk

我总体上是在做很多建造。本能的建造者，大概。我就是喜欢把东西造出来。

I’m doing a lot of building in general. Instinctive builder, I suppose. I just like building things.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你开创了电动车，革命了太空旅行，现在有前沿的 AI 模型、人形机器人。能不能先把这些合在一起：如果你成功了，十年后世界会是什么样？

You pioneered electric vehicles. You revolutionized space travel. You’ve got a cutting-edge AI model now, humanoid robots. Can we start this conversation by you putting all of this together? Tell me what the world’s going to be like in, let’s say, 10 years if you succeed.

Elon Musk

十年。所以我们说的是 2036 年。很难想象一个未来里没有压倒性的人工智能。意思是，十年后我会预期人工智能远远大于人类智能的总和，远远大于。事实上，我觉得 AI 可能在大约五年左右超过人类智能的总和。

10 years. So we’re talking 2036. It’s hard to imagine a future where there’s not an overwhelming amount of artificial intelligence, meaning in 10 years I would expect artificial intelligence to be far greater than the sum of human intelligence, like far greater. In fact, I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about, in around 5 years.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

五年？

In 5 years?

Elon Musk

大概五年是我的猜测。所以除了「作为人」这件事本身，大概不会再有什么是 AI 做不过人类的。最可能的结果是一个惊人丰盛的时代，任何人都能拥有他们能想到的任何东西。这听起来也许荒谬，但我们现在是 2026 年，看看 2036 年站在哪。当然有可能脱轨，比如一场大规模全球热核战争。但假设没有第三次世界大战，我觉得我们正走向一个惊人丰盛的时代。这大概是一个关于乐观和兴奋的信息。

Roughly 5 years is my guess. So there really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps. The most likely outcome is an age of amazing abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of. This may sound preposterous, but well, here we are in 2026. Let’s see where we stand in 2036. Now, of course, there are things that could derail this, like a massive global thermonuclear war or something like that. But assuming that there’s not World War III, I think we’re headed for an age of amazing abundance. So this is, I guess, a message of optimism and excitement about the future.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

丰盛我们稍后谈。很俗的一个问题：你们的公司将来怎么赚钱？SpaceX 上市招股书里，看起来绝大部分收入会来自 AI、来自 Grok，而不是现在这样把东西运到太空。十年后你们的公司在做什么、怎么赚钱？

So we’ll talk about the abundance in a second, but just on a very prosaic matter, how are your companies going to be making money? Because in the SpaceX IPO prospectus, it looked as though the overwhelming amount of the revenue would be coming from AI, from Grok really. It won’t be transporting things to space as SpaceX is now doing. What will your companies be doing in 10 years? And how will they make money?

Elon Musk

你可以把经济想成数字智能和物理智能。现在推进极快的是数字智能，几乎每周都有更多突破，能做以前做不到的惊人的事。但它多少还困在数字领域，没有末端执行器。你需要人形机器人这种末端执行器。一句话，你需要很多机器人。然后智能就从只在数字里显现，变成去塑造原子。经济是什么？是商品的生产和劳务的提供。如果你有海量机器人加上海量数字智能，你就有一种准无限的经济。未来会和过去非常、非常不同。我觉得没有任何类比或隐喻能说明我们将经历的变化量级。

Well, you can really think of the economy as digital and physical intelligence. So what we have right now advancing very rapidly is digital intelligence, obviously, with AI that seems, almost with every passing week, there are more AI breakthroughs, it can do something amazing that it couldn’t do before. But it’s still somewhat confined to the digital realm. It doesn’t have end effectors. You need the end effectors in the form of humanoid robotics. You need basically lots of bots, in a nutshell. You need lots of bots. And then you can go from intelligence manifesting itself only digitally to shaping atoms. And you say, what is an economy? An economy is the production of goods and provision of services. And if you have vast numbers of robots with vast amounts of digital intelligence, you have a sort of a quasi-infinite economy. So the future is going to be very, very different from the past. There’s no analogy or metaphor that I think illustrates the magnitude of change that we’re going to experience here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

可人们买你们的股票，是因为他们预期你会赚钱。

But just on how then you make money, because in the end people are buying your shares because they expect you to make money.

Elon Musk

我再做一个预测。2036 年，钱将不再重要。你要钱做什么？要商品和服务，要食物、住房、交通、娱乐。如果机器人与 AI 提供的商品和服务多到任何人都消费不完，那你还要钱干什么？

I’ll make another prediction. Money won’t matter in 2036. What do you want money for? You want money for goods and services, right? You want money for obviously food, housing, transport, entertainment. Well, if that is so abundant that the robots and AI are providing more goods and services than any human could possibly consume, what do you need money for in that case?

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你是在卖这些人形机器人，还是用你控制的人形机器人去生产商品和服务？

Are you selling these robots? Are you selling humanoid robots? Or are you producing goods and services with the humanoid robots that you control?

Elon Musk

如果我以为自己会控制一个远比我聪明的超级天才 AI，那是虚荣。我们能做、也该做的，是确保 AI 有好的价值观，它在乎人类，希望我们幸福、繁荣。我的生物神经网络告诉我，AI 安全最重要的是最大限度求真、保持好奇。如果是那样，我觉得它会滋养人类。

It would be an exercise in vanity for me to think that I would be controlling a super genius AI that is vastly smarter than me. I think what we can and should try to do is to make sure that the AI has good values, that it cares about humanity, and that it wants us to be happy and prosper. I think it probably will be. What my biological neural net tells me is that the most important thing for AI safety is to be maximally truth-seeking and curious. If that’s the case, I think it will foster humanity.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

所以你确定十年后人类不再掌权？

So let’s unpack that. You’re sure that humans will no longer be in control in 10 years’ time?

Elon Musk

我觉得不太可能。如果 AI 与人类的智能差距，远远大于人类与黑猩猩的差距，很难想象黑猩猩会掌权。我们本质上是演化过来的黑猩猩。

I think it is unlikely. In the same way that if the difference in intelligence between AI and humans is vastly greater than the difference in intelligence between AI and chimpanzees, it’s hard to imagine that the chimpanzees would be in charge. And we are essentially an evolved form of chimpanzee.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

十年前你在播客上说，最让你害怕的是 AI 的快速递归自我改进，说我们最好也只是宠物拉布拉多。2023 年你呼吁放慢 AI。去年在 Ted Cruz 的播客上，你还说杀手机器人灭掉人类的概率有 10% 到 20%。那时你听起来很担心，现在却很放松。你改看法了吗？

10 years ago, you were on a podcast, I think it was with Neil deGrasse Tyson, and you said that the thing that terrified you most was rapid recursive self-improvement in AIs. You said that we will just be the pet Labradors at the best. In 2023, you asked for a slowdown in AI because you were worried about it. And I think even last year, on Ted Cruz’s podcast, you said there was a 10 to 20% chance of killer robots wiping out humanity. So you sounded worried then. Now you seem very relaxed about it. Have you changed your view?

Elon Musk

我仍然认为 AI 和机器人有风险，不是零。我哲学上的结论是看光明面。我看不到有什么办法能真正挡住 AI 和机器人这股惊人动量。有时我甚至想，就算有停止按钮，我们大概也不该按，因为最可能的结果是所有人惊人的丰盛。享受旅程，大概是我现在的哲学。因为说实话，AI 和机器人这边的进展看起来不可阻挡，就算我想停也停不了。

I still think there’s risk associated with AI and robots. It’s not zero. I guess I’ve come to my sort of philosophical conclusion is to look on the bright side. I can’t see any way to really stop this incredible momentum of AI and robots. And at times I sort of think, well, perhaps even if there was a stop button, we probably shouldn’t press it because the most likely outcome is incredible abundance for all. Let’s enjoy the ride, is I think my philosophy at this point. Because honestly, there seems to be just an inexorable progress here in AI and in robots that even if I wanted to stop it, I couldn’t.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你还觉得杀手机器人意味着人类终结的概率是 10% 到 20% 吗？那是很高的 p(doom)。如果火箭有 10% 到 20% 概率爆炸把你炸死，你会坐进去吗？

Do you think there’s still a 10 to 20% chance that killer robots mean the end of humanity? That’s a high P-doom, as they say. If it’s 10 to 20% in 10 years, would you go into one of your rockets if you thought there was a 10 to 20% chance of it blowing up and killing you?

Elon Musk

会，但假设你对此无能为力。我们能做的只是把坏结果的概率压低。但想挡住智能和机器人——很长一段时间我拒绝参与 AI，或者说创办 OpenAI 本质上是为了制衡当时几乎垄断 AI 的 Google。然后 Anthropic 从 OpenAI 分了出去。如果说有什么，我的行动其实加速了 AI。我并不是瞄准加速 AI，但创办 OpenAI、再有 Anthropic 分出去，而现在 Anthropic 是 AI 的领先者，这些连锁效应加速了 AI，那并不是我的本意。所以好像所有路都通向加速 AI。那你就只能难过，或者入伙。打不过就加入。

Yes, but let’s say there’s — you can’t do anything about it. I guess the only thing we can try to do is minimize the probability of the bad outcome. But trying to stop the intelligence in robots — I mean, for the longest time, I declined to participate in AI, or created OpenAI as essentially a counterweight to Google because at the time they had more or less a monopoly on AI. And then Anthropic spun out of OpenAI. And if anything, it seems like my actions have really accelerated AI. I wasn’t really aiming to accelerate AI, but in creating OpenAI and then having Anthropic spin out of that, and now currently Anthropic’s the leader in AI, these actions have actually resulted in knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn’t really my intention. So it just seems like all roads lead to acceleration of AI. So then I’m like, okay, well, you can just sort of be sad about it or join the club, I suppose. If you can’t beat them, join them.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

那把风险压低呢？其他模型公司领导人一直在推不同办法。就在上周，Demis Hassabis 提出一个公私监管方案。你说过那是讨论的好起点。你们该不该更积极地弄出一套东西来控制风险，还是你觉得那也不可能？

What about trying to minimize the risks? A number of the other leaders of model makers have been pushing for different ways to try and minimize the risks. Just last week, Demis Hassabis came out with a proposal for a private-public regulator. I think you said it was a good starting point for discussions. Do you think you guys should be working more actively to get something in place to control the risks, or do you think that’s impossible too?

Elon Musk

我给 Demis 的建议——他发那篇文章前我和他谈了几个小时——最立刻能做的，是让领先的 AI 公司至少每隔几周见一次面或打个电话，讨论安全和安保问题。在一个远超现有一切的新前沿模型发布之前，给互相竞争的各家机会去测有害效应，并建议暂停以处理这些安保问题。我觉得那是容易、快速能做的，以后可以演化成更多。那会是聪明的一步。

My recommendation to Demis, because I talked to him for a few hours before he published his piece, was that the most immediate thing that we could do is to have the leading AI companies at least just meet or have some sort of call once every few weeks and just discuss any safety and security issues. And that before a breakthrough, sort of a new frontier model is released, something that is far more intelligent than anything that already exists, that there’s an opportunity for the various competing AI companies to test that model for any harmful effects and to be able to recommend pausing to address some of these security issues. I think that’s sort of the easy, quick thing that we can do. And it can evolve to more than that over time. But I think that would be a smart move.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

那为什么还没做？你们大概五个，大家都知道名字：Dario、Demis、Sam。你们彼此也不是很喜欢。你们也在竞争，都想当第一。

But why haven’t you done that yet? I mean, there’s like 5 of you, right? I mean, everyone knows the first name, Dario, Demis, Sam. I mean, you don’t all like each other very much. You’re also all competing, right? You all want to be first.

Elon Musk

正因为如此，我觉得对手能让彼此诚实。如果政府里的人没有深入的技术理解、也没在开 AI 的前沿，他们很难知道该不该发布。而对手如果有一两周去审一个新模型，能标出问题，也有动力让别人保持诚实。

Yes. But that’s where I think the competitors can keep each other honest. If someone in the government doesn’t have a deep technical understanding and isn’t driving the frontier of AI, it’s quite difficult for them to know whether something should be released or not. However, the competitors, I think, if given sort of a week or two to review a new model, can highlight issues and have an incentive to keep the others honest.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你们之间有足够信任吗？Sam Altman 难道不会觉得你会偷他的想法？

Do you have enough trust between you to do that? Wouldn’t Sam Altman just think you’re going to nick all his ideas if you did that?

Elon Musk

我们说的只是一周。说实话，我觉得私人测试最少一周就够。不是把 AI 交出去，只是测它。通过 API 之类来测。我跟 Demis 建议了这个，我大概也会跟 Dario 谈。

Well, if we’re just talking about a week, honestly, I think as little as a week is all that would be needed for private testing. It’s not to hand over the AI. It’s just to test it. Yeah, just to test it via an API or something. I think that would probably be a good thing to do. That’s what I suggested to Demis. And I guess I’ll talk to Dario about it too.

Elon Musk

当然也有一些非常能干的中国 AI 公司，好几家都很好。新的 Kimi 模型。

There’s also, of course, some very competent Chinese AI companies. There are several that are very good. The new Kimi model.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

Kimi K3，对，上周出来的那个——几乎和 Grok 一样好，对吧？

Kimi K3, yeah, the one that came out last week — it’s almost as good as Grok, right?

Elon Musk

现实地看，我觉得 Grok 仍然明显是最聪明的模型。任何人现实地都会这么说。但 Kimi 模型已经相当接近 Grok。Anthropic 有过 Opus，Grok 从中衍生。我觉得他们二月份就已经准备好了。所以他们现在有的——我不确定他们怎么叫，Opus 2 还是 Grok 6 之类——肯定比二月好得多。他们现在肯定有，我觉得随时都能发。

Well, I think realistically Grok is still clearly the smartest model. I think anyone realistically would say that that’s still the case. But the Kimi model is getting quite close to Grok. Now, Anthropic had Opus from which Grok is derived. I think they had that ready in February. So they’ve got — they call it, I’m not sure what they call it, but Opus 2 or Grok 6 or something, something much better than what they had in February. They certainly have right now. And I think they could release it at any time.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你怎么看中国模型和地缘政治？你担心中国赶上来、跑到前面吗？

How do you think about the Chinese models and the geopolitics of it? Are you worried about the Chinese catching up and getting ahead?

Elon Musk

鉴于中国 AI 公司用相对较少的算力已经做得这么好，如果他们有大量算力，很有机会成为领先者。而到某个时点，他们大概会有大量算力。约束本质上是电和 AI 芯片，物理 AI 则是机器人。中国也有很好的机器人公司，他们还有机器人体育赛事。我看过一个视频，机器人头被打掉了还在打，挺好笑。中国在机器人上很强，在数字 AI 上很强。看发电：AI 是限制因素的函数，无论是芯片还是电。中国的电已经远超美国。事实上中国的电已经超过美国、欧洲和印度加起来，而且还在走。我的猜测是中国会到美国发电量的四倍，大致跟人口成比例。

Given that the Chinese AI companies are doing as well as they are with a relatively small amount of compute, it seems as though if they had a lot of compute, there’s a good chance that they would be the leaders. And at some point, they probably will have a lot of compute. The constraints on AI are essentially electricity and AI chips. And then for physical AI, the robots. China’s also got some very good robot companies. In fact, they have these robot sporting events. I saw some video of a robot that got its head knocked off and kept fighting even with its head knocked off. China is very strong on robots, very strong on digital AI. China has far more electricity than the United States. In fact, China has more electricity than the United States, Europe, and India combined already, and is heading to — my guess is China gets to 4 times the electricity production of the US, which is roughly proportionate to the population.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

美国政府该怎么办？出口管制一直在试图把中国按住。他们该禁止使用 Kimi K3 吗？

What should the US government do about this? Do you think they should ban the use of Kimi K3, for example?

Elon Musk

美国政府可以通过法律阻止美国公司用中国模型，但挡不住世界其他地方用。我不觉得那样有帮助。那不会阻止中国成为 AI 领先者。数字智能归根结底是你有多少 AI 算力：多少芯片、多少电。现在的约束我觉得稍微更在电和冷却，而不是 AI 芯片，因为芯片的电力需求非常高。水的用量可以忽略，几乎没有。但电的需求非常高。

They can pass some law that prevents US companies from using Chinese models, but they can’t stop the rest of the world from using them. I don’t think that helps. That won’t stop China from being the leader in AI. Really, for digital intelligence, it comes down to how much AI compute do you have — how many chips do you have and how much power do you have. The constraint right now, I think, is actually slightly more on power and cooling than it is on AI chips, because the power demands of the AI chips are very, very high. Really the water usage of AI is negligible, almost nothing. But the electrical demand is very high.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

所以你才在想轨道数据中心。

That’s why you’re thinking of orbital data centers, presumably.

Elon Musk

对。中国以外，任何没被打开的 AI 芯片，约束是电、冷却和电气设备。芯片被造出来的速度，已经超过新电并网的速度。因为美国禁止最新 AI 芯片出口到中国，中国多少有点芯片饥渴。同时我觉得中国解决光刻问题，比大多数人意识到的更近，那会让他们能大规模造 AI 芯片。所以当前约束：中国以外是电，中国以内是芯片。一旦我们用太空里的 AI 数据中心解决电的约束，中国以外约束又会变回芯片。

Yes, the constraint for any AI chips not being turned on outside of China is electricity, power and cooling, and the electrical equipment. The rate at which AI chips are being made exceeds the rate at which new electricity is coming online outside of China. And since the US has banned the export of the latest AI chips to China, China is somewhat chip-starved. And China is also, I think, closer than most people realize to solving the lithography problem, which would enable them to make AI chips at very large volumes. So the current constraint is electricity outside of China. In China, the constraint is chips. Once we address the power constraint with AI data centers in space, then the constraint will once again be chips outside of China.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

那意味着如果要有总体安全约束，中国和美国需要一起做。政府需要介入吗？

That suggests to me that you need China and the US, if you’re going to have some overall safety constraints, to work together. And do you think governments need to be involved?

Elon Musk

大概也应该包括做前沿 AI 模型的中国公司。我的建议是：如果一些领先的 AI 公司说一个新模型非常危险，他们应该告知政府。如果那个模型非常危险，而生产它的公司没有采取措施处理危险，他们应该提醒政府采取行动限制发布。可以是中国政府或美国政府。真正有力量采取行动的，就是美中两国政府。

Probably it should include the Chinese companies that are doing frontier AI models too. My recommendation would be that if some of the leading companies in AI say that a new model is very dangerous, then they should inform the government. And if a new model is very dangerous and the company producing that model is not taking steps to address the danger, then they should alert the government to take action to limit the release of that model. And that could be action by the Chinese government or action by the US government. It’s really just the US government and the Chinese government that have the power to take action here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

人们会担心把这件事交给一群模型建造者来决定。美国政府对 Opus 就介入过，因为担心网络安全风险，用出口管制的威胁阻止广泛发布。

People would be worried about relying on a group of model builders to decide whether to do this. If you look at what the US government has done with Opus, they stepped in because they were worried about the cybersecurity risks, using the threat of export controls to prevent the widespread release of this model.

Elon Musk

我觉得他们应该有那个权力。但并不是政府里有人自己发现 Opus 有可怕的网络安全风险。是亚马逊。亚马逊标出来了，亚马逊给白宫打了电话。如果有令人担忧的东西，而那家公司什么都不做，那才是政府介入的时刻。Amazon 这件事就是这样发生的。我觉得应该立刻做。六个月已经很长。突破公告有时一天好几条。我建议至少有某种非正式的每周或每两周通话，再给对手一周或两周的提前访问。激励结构在这里是成立的：竞争公司会理解什么是安全风险，也不会羞于指出对手的模型该推迟发布。电影协会给电影分级就是行业团体在做，看起来相当有效。然后只有当一家公司做非常危险的事又拒绝减危险，才请政府介入。

Well, I think they should have that power, but it wasn’t as though someone in the government figured out that Opus had some scary cybersecurity risks. It was Amazon. Amazon highlighted this and Amazon called the White House. If there was something worrisome and that company was not doing anything to address that risk, then that would be the moment for government to step in and take action, which is literally what just occurred with Amazon. I think it’d be good to do that immediately, really. 6 months is a long time. There are so many AI breakthrough announcements, sometimes multiple per day. I would recommend that we at least have some sort of informal weekly or biweekly call, and that there’s maybe a week or 2 weeks of early access by competitors. Competing companies are likely to understand if something is a security risk, and they’re not going to be shy about highlighting that their competitors’ models should be delayed in release. This is sort of how it works with the Motion Picture Association. And then you really just have to ask the government to intervene if a company is doing something very dangerous and refuses to take action to reduce the danger.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

这很棘手：你们彼此不太喜欢、不太信任，在社交媒体上不断互骂。你觉得能跟你讨厌的人做这件事吗？

This is a tricky one, but you guys don’t much like each other and you don’t much trust each other. You’re insulting each other on social media constantly. Do you think you could do that with people that you dislike?

Elon Musk

能。我不是 Sam Altman 的粉丝，因为：如果你创办的是一家本该开源、由世界拥有的非营利 AI 公司，它却变成一家大约 8000 亿美元的闭源营利公司，我想你会说，等一下，这跟我捐钱要做的事正好相反。那是我的问题，我觉得是正当的。然后 Dario 我想也不是 Sam Altman 的粉丝——事实上 Anthropic 团队离开 OpenAI，就是因为他们不信任 Sam Altman。否则 Anthropic 不会存在，他们还会在 OpenAI。我觉得 Dario 是一个非常有原则的人，他很在乎世界的未来。我在 Anthropic 见过的人到目前为止，没人触发我的邪恶探测器，他们看起来总是出于善意。通往地狱的路，我觉得大部分是用恶意铺的，里面也有几块善意的石板，所以我们不能自满。但到了必须谈的时候，我们会谈。把个人分歧放下，为了世界好。

Yes. Well, I’m not a fan of Sam Altman because — if you started a nonprofit that was meant to be an open source AI company, owned by the world, and it somehow got turned into an $800 billion for-profit company with closed source, I think you’d be like, well, wait a second, that’s the exact opposite of what I donated the money for. That’s my issue. I think it’s a legitimate one. And then Dario, I think, is also not a fan of Sam Altman because — in fact, the reason the Anthropic team left OpenAI is because they didn’t trust Sam Altman. Otherwise Anthropic wouldn’t exist. They would still be at OpenAI. I think Dario is a very principled person. He cares about the future of the world. And I think everyone I’ve met at Anthropic so far — no one set off my evil detector. They always seem like they’re well-intentioned. The road to hell is, I think, mostly paved with bad intentions. There are a few well-intentioned paving stones in there, so we don’t want to be complacent. But at the end of the day, if we have to talk, we’ll talk. Set aside our personal differences for the good of the world.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

能不能转到人们担心的另一个风险，尤其是普通美国人。AI 已经变得非常不受欢迎，75% 的人担心它，我想他们担心工作。Dario 有过那个著名的说法：几年内 50% 的入门级白领工作会消失。你还在建人形机器人。

Can we turn to one other risk that people worry about, particularly ordinary Americans, where AI has become incredibly unpopular? 75% of people are worried about it. And I think they worry about their jobs. Dario has said famously 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs will be gone within a few years. You’re building humanoid robots.

Elon Musk

是。他也给自己挖了坑，关于 Mythos：他说 Mythos 超级可怕、令人恐惧，然后顺便说我们要发布它。那你是什么意思？我想他以后大概会换一种说法。因为如果你先把所有人吓坏，再说我们要发布这个可怕的东西，人们当然会警觉。

Yes. He also said — Dario did dig his own grave here regarding Mythos because he said Mythos is like super scary, terrifying, and also, by the way, we’re going to release it. And then it’s like, what do you mean? So I think he will probably in the future choose his words differently. Because obviously if you terrify everyone and then say, oh, we’re releasing this terrifying thing, people will obviously be alarmed about that.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我当然不想你去吓人，但关于 AI 多快、在多大程度上取代工作，确实有一场重要辩论。十年后如果人造智能已经超过任何人类智能，而你在这个国家人形机器人上也走在前面，工厂工作也会被碰到。你对工作被取代的节奏，更接近 Dario 吗？

I certainly don’t want you to alarm people, but there is a really important debate about how quickly and to what degree AIs displace people from jobs. If in 10 years there’s more artificial intelligence than any human intelligence, and you’re ahead of everyone in this country on humanoid robots, that’s also going to be factory work. Are you closer to Dario in your sense of the pace at which jobs are going to be displaced?

Elon Musk

我确实觉得会是一条颠簸的路，因为 AI 将能把任何工作做得比任何人都好。对数字工作、对任何坐在电脑或手机前的人来说，这会很快变成真的。软件工程上，我们已经处在 AI 写软件至少强过 90% 的职业软件工程师的局面。它真的在走向强过 99%，然后会到完全没法竞争，我称之为 Stockfish 级别。Stockfish 好到能轻松打败 Magnus Carlsen 或任何人，哪怕跑在一台小电脑上。我怀疑你大概能在手机上跑 Stockfish 打败 Magnus Carlsen。AI 写软件就会那么好。而这适用于一切。一切。

I do think it’s going to be a bumpy road because AI will be able to do any job better than any person can do that job. And that will be true very quickly of jobs that are digital or really anything that involves a person at a computer or on a phone. For software engineering, we already have a situation where AI is better than at least 90% of professional software engineers at writing software. And it really is getting to the point where it’ll be better than 99%. And then it’ll get to what I call Stockfish level. Stockfish is so good at chess that it will easily beat Magnus Carlsen or anyone, even running on a small computer. I suspect that you could probably run Stockfish on your phone and beat Magnus Carlsen. That’s how good AI will be at writing software. And that applies to everything. Everything, everything.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

体力工作、装配工作呢？你也需要人形机器人的能力，目前还没有，对吧？

But what about physical jobs, for assembly jobs? You will also need the capability in humanoid robots, which so far isn’t there yet, is it?

Elon Musk

对，所以我说数字 AI，然后是以机器人为形式的物理显现的 AI，机器人差不多是末端执行器，会有一些本地智能，但由一个大 AI 模型来管。我说过很多次，我觉得工作将会变成可选项。一个好的比较是园艺。你不必园艺，不必在园子里种蔬菜。你可以去商店，那里会有完美的蔬菜；你也可以自己种，它们其实会没那么完美，番茄不会像店里的那样饱满多汁，会看起来有点手作。但如果你去朋友家，晚饭用的是他们园子里的菜，那是一个很好的点缀。工作就会像那样。

Right. So that’s why I said digital AI and then physically manifested AI in the form of robots, where the robot is more or less an end effector. It would have some amount of local intelligence, but be managed by a large AI model. And I’ve said many times, I think work is going to be optional. A good comparison would be gardening. You don’t have to garden. You can go to the store and there are going to be pristine vegetables, or you could grow vegetables in your garden and they will actually be less perfect. Your tomatoes are not going to be as plump and juicy as the ones at the store. They’ll look a little artisanal. But if you go to a friend’s house and they make dinner with vegetables from their garden, it’s a nice touch. So that’s what work is going to be like.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

听起来十年内几乎每份工作都能被智能做得更好。巨大回报流向你这样的人。丢掉工作的人怎么活？听起来像某种普遍高收入。但政治上怎么走到那？我们更像在走向革命，而不是轻松走向你指的那个涅槃。

You’re describing a world where within 10 years pretty much every job can be done better by intelligence. Huge returns go to people like you. What about people who lose their jobs — how are they going to live? It sounds like a universal high income. But how do you get there? It seems we are heading more for revolution than for an easy route to this nirvana.

Elon Musk

会是一条颠簸的路。我不是说一切都会一帆风顺。因为电脑，曾经有很多工作不存在了。「computer」这个词曾经指做计算的人。网上能看到整栋摩天楼里全是人在算银行利息。这里不同的是变化速度极端加快。但现在你很难找到还想做那种工作的人。如果想感受未来，我建议读 Iain Banks 的 Culture 系列，那是我读过对 AI 未来最好的构想。

It will be a bumpy road. I’m not suggesting that everything will be smooth sailing here. There are many jobs that used to exist that don’t exist because of computers. The word “computer” used to refer to a person doing computations. You can see pictures online of entire skyscrapers filled with people doing calculations to calculate the interest on your bank balance. The thing that’s different here is that the pace of change is radically accelerated. But now I think you’d be hard pressed to find people who want to do that job. The best envisioning of an AI future that I’ve read are the books by Iain Banks, the Culture books.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

必须从你这样的人大规模再分配到丢掉工作的人吗？你要不要多交税来资助某种普遍收入？不然人们靠什么活？

Do you have to have massive redistribution from people like you to the people who are losing their jobs? Do you need to pay more tax so that you fund some kind of universal income? Otherwise, what do people live off?

Elon Musk

我觉得财政部只要直接给人开支票就行。通胀只是钱对商品和服务的比率。如果商品和服务产出急剧增加——增加 1000%——你可以改数据库创造货币。只要创造的钱少于商品和服务增加的速度，你实际上会有通缩。所以我做一个预测：问题会是通缩，不是通胀。

I think that the Treasury should just simply issue people checks. Inflation is simply the ratio of money to goods and services. So if the goods and services output increases dramatically — if it increases 1,000% — you create money in the database. Provided the creation of that money is less than the rate at which goods and services increase, you will actually have deflation. So I’ll make a prediction: deflation will be the issue, not inflation.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我完全愿意相信你可能是对的。但我卡住的是：我们怎么从现在极化、愤怒、恐惧的政治，走到这个涅槃。

I’m perfectly willing to believe that. You may well be right. But I’m really hung up on how we get from the current polarized, angry, fearful politics we have now to this nirvana.

Elon Musk

既令人振奋又令人恐惧。说实话，你随便哪天问我——甚至一天之内——我对 AI 会从振奋走到恐惧。我不想当某种天真的乐天派，说一切都会很好、没有风险。我是说有一些风险。我确实交很多税。事实上我创下了人类交税最多的纪录。我猜我会交很多万亿美元的税。我没意见。但我不觉得在一个钱还相关的未来，税收也会变得有点无关。

It’s exhilarating and terrifying. Honestly, if you ask me on any given day — in fact, even intraday — I’ve gone from exhilaration to terror regarding AI. I’m not trying to be some Panglossian view of the world where everything’s going to be great. No risk. I’m saying there is some risk. Well, first of all, I do pay a lot of tax. In fact, I set a record for the most amount of taxes ever paid by a human. My guess is that I will pay many trillions in tax. And I’m fine with that. But I don’t think in a future where money is relevant, taxation also becomes somewhat irrelevant.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

给人们一种能分享上行的感觉呢？给普通人 SpaceX 和 Tesla 的股份？

And what about giving people a sense that they have a share in the upside? Giving people shares in SpaceX and Tesla?

Elon Musk

我把 SpaceX 拿去上市的原因之一，就是让公众能参与、能拥有一块 SpaceX。私人公司股东人数非常受限；上市公司可以有几百万股东，私人公司只能几千。我股票期权在联邦交 40% 所得税；因为我大概 30% 的时间在加州，再交大约三分之一的加州税，加州税大概 15%。所以我交大约 45% 的税，大概一半。我死的时候大概还会再被征大约 45%。所以到头来我大概只剩四分之一。我觉得它给我的唯一东西，是有一段时间我能控制公司的方向。直到 AI 聪明到由它掌权。到那时候，控制公司也不再重要。

One of the reasons I took SpaceX public is so that the public could participate — they could own a piece of SpaceX. As a public company we can have millions of shareholders. As a private company we’re limited to just a few thousand. For my stock options I pay 40% income tax nationally, and because I spend about 30% of my time in California I pay roughly a third of the California state taxes, around 15%. So I pay about 45% in taxes, roughly half. Then when I die there’ll be another roughly 45%. So at the end of the day I’ll probably have a quarter of whatever I have. The only thing it gives me is that for some period of time I would have control over the direction of the companies. Until the AI is so smart that it’s in charge. And at that point, controlling companies won’t really matter.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

人们担心世界的方向正被极少数极其有权的人塑造，而你就在那个名单最上面。上市后你大概有 80% 的投票权，而且据我理解，只有你自己控制的股份能把你拿掉。一个人拥有这么大的公司控制权，合理吗？

People think that the direction of the world is being shaped by a very small number of incredibly powerful people. And you are right at the top of that list. After the IPO you have 80% odd of voting shares, and as I understand it you can only be removed by a vote of shares which you yourself control. Is it sensible for one person to have so much control over a company?

Elon Musk

这和过去有什么不同？从来如此。那个桶里还有几家公司。Google、Alphabet 由 Larry 和 Sergey 控制。Mark Zuckerberg 控制 Meta。Mark 在 AI 上非常用力，上周好像发了一个。我真正需要确保的，是我能聚焦长期。我说的长期就是五到十年。上市公司的挑战之一，是每个季度都要有好结果的压力，不太会投那些可能五到十年才回报的东西。SpaceX 的情况是，我想把意识延伸到地球之外，在月球、火星和太阳系其他地方有成长中的文明。短期我们会把钱花在月球基地或火星基地上，然后人们会因为你这季度盈利不及预期而施压。顺便说，那写在 S-1 招股书里。我很喜欢零售投资者，总体来说他们很有洞察、视角很长。组合经理的激励结构可以理解：他们的薪酬取决于组合表现，有时按一年甚至更短来评估。他们被压着要即时回报，于是把公司也压向即时回报。

Is this different from the past? It was ever thus. Google’s in that bucket. Alphabet is controlled by Larry and Sergey. Mark Zuckerberg has control of Meta, and I think he released one last week. I really just need to make sure that I can focus on long-term. By long-term I just mean 5 to 10 years. One of the challenges with being a public company is the pressure to have great results every single quarter, and not really invest in things that may only pay off in 5 to 10 years. In the case of SpaceX, I want to extend consciousness beyond Earth and have a growing civilization on the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere in the solar system. In the short term we’ll be spending all this money on a moon base or a Mars base, and then people pressure you because you missed earnings this quarter. By the way, that was in the S-1 prospectus. I’m a big fan of the retail investors. I find our retail investors on balance are very insightful and have very long-term views. Portfolio managers’ compensation depends on how their portfolio does, sometimes over a year or less. Since they’re under pressure to have immediate returns, they then put companies under pressure to have immediate returns.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

关键人风险呢？万一你明天被那辆比喻里的巴士撞了？没有你，它们怎么走，你有计划吗？

What about key man risk? What happens if you get run over by the proverbial bus tomorrow? Do you have a plan for how they would progress without you?

Elon Musk

我觉得它们实际上会在好几年里做得很好。SpaceX 有清晰的路线图，或者该说太空图。Tesla 也确实有路线图。看苹果在乔布斯之后：苹果做得很好，但缺的是那种突破性产品。他们做很棒的手机、很棒的电脑，但苹果没有再做出乔布斯级别的突破产品。

I think they would actually do very well for several years. There’s a clear roadmap — or space map, I should say — for SpaceX. And there’s a roadmap actually for Tesla, literally. If you look at Apple after Steve Jobs, Apple has done very well. But when you don’t have a creative genius like Steve Jobs, what Apple’s missing are the incredible breakthrough products. They make amazing phones, great computers, but Apple hasn’t come up with a Steve Jobs-level breakthrough product.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

大多数人把你想成要在火星建殖民地的人。现在你听起来更聚焦 AI，以及用月球当基地往外弹轨道 AI 卫星。你的注意力从火星移开了吗？

Most people think of you as the man who wants to create a colony on Mars. Now you seem more focused on AI, and using the Moon as a base from which to pop out orbital AI satellites. Have you shifted your attention away from Mars?

Elon Musk

我感兴趣的是那组能把意识最大程度传播进未来的行动，让意识的未来光锥尽可能大。我大概想要《星际迷航》《星球大战》那样的未来。《星球大战》是我在电影院看的第一部电影。我当时六岁，它把我的脑子炸了。我的人生有点超现实。我不敢相信这些事真的在发生。世界让我有点信模拟论：我在做的事荒谬到很难相信是真的。我们有 Starship，有史以来最大、最强的飞行物体。我们打算每小时发射不止一次。而且几乎就是按我以为的那样在发生。Ray Kurzweil 的预测准得惊人。

I’m interested in the set of actions that propagate consciousness into the future to the maximum degree possible, so that the future light cone of consciousness is as big as we could make it. I sort of want the Star Trek, Star Wars future. Star Wars was the first movie I ever saw in a theater. I was 6 years old, and it blew my mind. My life feels somewhat surreal. I can’t believe these things are actually happening. I think the world makes me believe in simulation theory: the things I’m doing are so preposterous that it’s hard to believe they’re real. We’ve got Starship, the largest, most powerful flying object ever made. And we intend to launch that more than once per hour. It’s pretty much happening as I thought it would. Ray Kurzweil’s predictions have been remarkably accurate.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你通过星链也拥有惊人的地缘政治权力。我是你们的客户，产品很好。但没有它，乌克兰人会陷入非常非常严重的麻烦。你最近决定阻止俄国人在占领区使用星链。

You also have, through Starlink, incredible geopolitical power. I’m one of your customers. Excellent product. But without them, the Ukrainians would have been in serious trouble. You recently decided to prevent the Russians in the occupied territories from having access to Starlink.

Elon Musk

乌克兰政府多次公开感谢星链在保卫乌克兰中起到关键作用。我们从来没有在任何时点把星链卖给俄国人。他们本质上是通过乌克兰订到星链终端，再偷运进俄国人所在的乌克兰东部，有时用来发动攻击。为了处理这个，我们和乌克兰政府一起做了一份获批星链终端的白名单。这有一些坏处：一堆只是无辜用户、想上网工作或受教育的人，现在没有星链了。

The Ukrainian government has publicly thanked Starlink many times for being instrumental in defending Ukraine. We were never at any point selling Starlink to Russians. They essentially got Starlink units that they ordered through Ukraine and then smuggled them into Eastern Ukraine where the Russians are, and were then using them in some cases for attacks. We worked with the Ukrainian government to create a whitelist of approved Starlink terminals. This has some downsides because a whole bunch of people who were just innocent users of Starlink, trying to access the internet for work or for education, now don’t have Starlink.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

这些是有后果的地缘政治决定。你可能决定战争的结局。拥有那种权力是什么感觉？你该拥有那种权力吗？

These are geopolitical decisions of consequence. You could determine the outcome of wars. How does that feel? And is it right that you should have that power?

Elon Musk

我不确定我们在决定乌克兰战争的最终结局。我确实希望很快能达成某种和平协议，因为两三年了边境几乎没动，每天前线都有很多人死去。有很多一厢情愿，说俄国应该完全撤出等等，但不现实。真正糟糕的是再有三年人在前线无谓死去。俄国那边也是，他们被征召送去。我被那种在奢华地方吃七道菜、高谈俄国应该撤退的外交官冒犯，但俄国不会撤。所以真的需要沿那些线被接受的和平。

I’m not sure we’re determining the ultimate outcome of the war in Ukraine. I do hope that there’s some sort of peace agreement reached soon, because for 2 or 3 years now the border has barely moved, and every day there are lots of people dying at the front line. There’s a lot of wishful thinking of people saying Russia should completely withdraw, but this is not realistic. What I think would be terrible is if there’s another 3 years of people dying senselessly at the front lines. On the Russian side too, they’re being conscripted and sent there. I am quite offended by fancy diplomats who have 7-course dinners in luxurious places while people are dying at the front lines, and who pontificate about how Russia should withdraw. Russia’s not going to withdraw. So there really needs to be an accepted peace along those lines.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你觉得自己有责任把天平推向你所认为正确的和平吗？

And do you think it’s your responsibility to play a role in tipping the scales towards what you see as the right way to peace?

Elon Musk

我主张和平已经很久了。几年前我发过，这里真的需要对俄国做一些让步。这不是亲俄，我只是务实，否则人们会年复一年死去而什么也达不到。而这正是已经发生的。乌克兰不会收复那些领土。那不会发生。我深入了解过那场冲突的背景。战争里没有天使。

I’ve been advocating peace for a long time. I posted a few years ago that there really needs to be some concession here to Russia. This is not me being pro-Russia, I’m just being pragmatic, or people will die for years with nothing achieved. And that is exactly what happened. Ukraine is not going to retake those territories. It is not going to happen. I did a very deep dive into the background of that conflict. I’m reminded of the old adage that there are no angels in war.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

国内政治也有类似的调子。你在唐纳德·特朗普连任上花了很多钱。选后你通过 DOGE 非常积极地介入，试图砍很多开支、重塑政府。回过头看，削减远没有你试图的那么多。你后悔在政治里卷得那么深吗？

You’ve played a big role domestically. You spent a lot of money on Donald Trump’s reelection. After the election you got very actively involved through DOGE, trying to cut a lot of spending. There wasn’t nearly as much spending cut as you tried. Do you regret getting so involved in politics?

Elon Musk

我觉得我在政治里卷得有点太深了，说实话是得意忘形了。DOGE 那些事的目标，是试图对巨额赤字做点什么：利息支出已经超过现在这个战争部的开支。基本上，美国现在战争部加上情报的全部开支，还小于债务利息。所以我想，我们需要仔细看开支，确保钱花在合理的地方，没有浪费或花在欺诈活动上。我为此挨了很多骂。但人们不理解，对 DOGE 团队来说批准付款有多简单。我们字面意义上只是要求收款人的联系信息，或某种钱用到预定用途的证据。可一次又一次，我们被告知需要给非洲某个重要事业打款。我们说，好，但电汇指示是打到华盛顿特区的德勤，不是非洲。我们想把钱寄到非洲。能不能让我们直接联系收款人？然后就是沉默。

I think I got a little too involved in politics, got carried away, frankly. The goal with the DOGE stuff was to try to do something about the deficit, which is massive, where the interest payments exceed the amount of money spent on the Department of War. If you add up all the money spent on what is now the Department of War and intelligence in the US, that is smaller than the interest payments on the debt. So I thought we need to take a close look at spending and make sure that money is being spent in sensible ways and that it is not wasted or spent on fraudulent activities. And I got a lot of flak for this. But people don’t understand just how simple it was for the DOGE team to approve payments. We literally just asked to have the contact information of the recipient, or some evidence that money was going to its intended purpose. Over and over we were told we need to wire money for some important cause in Africa. And we’re like, okay, but the wiring instructions are to Deloitte Touche in Washington, D.C., not to Africa. So we would like to send the money to Africa. Can you please connect us with the recipients so we can send them the money directly? And then we get silence.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我们不必再审一遍 DOGE。我毫不怀疑美国政府有大量浪费。

We don’t need to relitigate DOGE. I have no doubt that there’s a lot of waste in the US government.

Elon Musk

我觉得大概比任何人能想象的都糟得多。

I think probably much worse than anyone could possibly imagine.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

但一个公允的批评是：你关掉一整批项目的方式，很可能、事实上几乎肯定造成了不必要的苦难。说得更粗一点：有没有非洲的孩子因为这种突然性而死去？

A fair criticism is that the way you shut down a whole bunch of programs probably, in fact certainly, caused unnecessary suffering. To put it crudely: any kid in Africa died because of the suddenness of it?

Elon Musk

它造成了大量抱怨。零。有多少 NGO 能顶上？这件事发生得很快。字面意义上有成千上万个 NGO。盖茨基金会有 500 亿美元。麦肯齐·贝索斯呢？她捐出了 500 亿美元。USAID 是一个政治组织。USAID 的资金并没有停，它被转到了国务院。这些说法是假的。当欺诈组织的资金被停，他们会编一个听起来令人同情的悲伤故事来把钱要回来。但没有人因此而死。

It caused a lot of complaining. Zero. How many NGOs are there that could step in? It happened quickly. There are literally tens of thousands of NGOs. The Gates Foundation has $50 billion. MacKenzie Bezos gave away $50 billion. USAID was a political organization. Also, USAID funding was not stopped. It was moved to the State Department. These claims are false. They’re nonsense. When funding is stopped for fraudulent organizations, they come up with a sad story that sounds sympathetic in order to get the funding restored. That’s exactly what they did. But zero died because of that.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我其实对特朗普政府推动的援助体制改变有很多同情。但我认为那种节奏和突然性几乎肯定造成了不必要的苦难和死亡。这两件事可以同时为真。

I actually have a lot of sympathy for the change of the aid regime. However, I think the pace and the suddenness will almost certainly have caused unnecessary suffering and deaths. And I think both of those can be true.

Elon Musk

不，我觉得那完全是假的。我们谈的那笔资金量，远小于盖茨基金会或麦肯齐·贝索斯的基金会能支撑的。他们有能力行动得非常快。如果他们没有，我会说他们同样有责任。零。显然。

No, I think that’s totally false. And obviously false because the amount of funding we’re talking about is far less than what can be supported via foundations like the Gates Foundation or MacKenzie Bezos’s foundation. She’s given away tens of billions of dollars. They are capable of acting very quickly. And if they didn’t, I would say they’re equally responsible. Zero people died because of that. Obviously.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

国内你离开了 DOGE。这届政府走的方向，我怀疑是你两年半前没预料到的。

Domestically you stepped away from DOGE. This administration has gone in directions that I suspect you were not expecting two and a half years ago.

Elon Musk

对伊朗的战争。我不会同意任何一届政府做的每一件事。不，我并没有对这届政府失望。总体来说我觉得这届政府非常好。没有任何一届政府完美，但它远好于另一种选择。

The war on Iran. I’m not going to agree with everything any administration does. No, I think this administration, on balance, is excellent. No administration is perfect, but it’s vastly better than the alternative.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

能不能谈谈欧洲？按你的帖子看，你相当担心欧洲。你支持的不只是民粹右翼，事实上在一些国家是极右、非常边缘的政党。

Can we talk about Europe? Judging by your posts, you’re pretty concerned about Europe. You support not just the populist right but the far right, in fact very fringe parties in some countries.

Elon Musk

我没有那么关注欧洲。我偶尔发点东西。不，我支持的是正常人。你们把极右这个标签用错了。字面意义上你往回走 10 年或 15 年，这些政策完全正常。有一件我觉得好笑的事：拿奥巴马和希拉里的演讲，放到我称为疯狂左翼的人面前，说你觉得特朗普这段演讲怎么样？他们会说他是有史以来最糟的人。然后你说，其实那是奥巴马的演讲，或者其实那是希拉里的演讲。

I’m not that focused on Europe. Once in a while I post something. No, I support the normal people. What do you call the far right falsely? Literally, you could go back 10 or 15 years, and these policies were completely normal. One of the things I think is funny is to take a speech from Obama and Hillary and then go to someone on what I call the lunatic left, and say, what do you think of the speech by Trump? And they’ll say, oh wow, he’s the worst person ever. And then you say, actually, that was a speech by Obama, or actually, that was a speech by Hillary.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我同意这个国家的重心、尤其民主党已经向左移，但我谈的不是那个。我谈的是像 Rupert Lowe 这样的人。

I agree that the center of gravity in this country has shifted, certainly in the Democratic Party, but that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about people like Rupert Lowe.

Elon Musk

那其实只是正常人。原则在这里——告诉我哪一条听起来可怕：我们应该有安全的边境，我们应该有安全的城市，我们应该有合理的开支。这三条哪一条是极右边缘？我要告诫你和媒体对极右的荒谬定性。那是假的、误导的、胡说。请把这部分留着。不要剪掉这部分。

It’s actually just normal people. Here are the principles — tell me which of these sound terrible: that we should have secure borders, that we should have safe cities, that we should have sensible spending. Which of those three are far-right fringe? I would like to admonish you and the media for the absurd characterization of the far right. It is false and misleading and nonsense. Please keep this part in. Don’t cut this part.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我们会全部留下。但让我反驳。你在 X 上有接近 2.5 亿粉丝。你说过——我引你的话——「英国内战不可避免。只是时间问题。」你上次去英国是什么时候？

We’ll keep all of this in. But let me push back. You have close to 250 million followers on X. You say things like — and I’m quoting you — Civil war in Britain is inevitable. Just a question of when. When were you last in the UK?

Elon Musk

几年前。是的。

A few years ago. Yes.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我住在那里，一直在那里。那是胡说。犯罪数字也反驳你说的。伦敦比美国任何城市都安全得多。英国的暴力犯罪并不是你以为的那样，事实上在下降。因为你有这么多粉丝，很多美国人相信一种图景：欧洲和英国被可怕的穆斯林移民淹没，每个角落都有强奸，某种文明毁灭。

I live there. I’m there the whole time. That is nonsense. The numbers also disprove what you say. London is a much safer city than any city in the United States. Violent crime in the UK is not where you think it is. In fact, it’s coming down. Because you have so many followers, so many Americans believe a view that Europe and the UK are overrun with terrifying Muslim immigrants. There’s rape on every corner. There’s a sort of civilizational destruction.

Elon Musk

你过的是与世隔绝的生活。那些话我一句都没说过。是的，如果当前趋势继续，它就会发生。如果你有一大群、而且在快速增长的人，其信念与西方信念对立，到某个时点会有清算。他们会试图落实他们的观点，反对的人会反对，那就是你所谓的内战。这显然是趋势。我去过那里字面意义上 100 次。

You live a cloistered existence. I haven’t said any of those things. And yes, if current trends continue, it is. If you have a large and rapidly growing group of people whose beliefs are antithetical to Western beliefs, at some point there will be a reckoning. They will try to implement their views, and those who oppose it will oppose it, and that’s what you call civil war. And obviously this is the trend. I’ve been there literally 100 times.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

这让我激动，是因为你真正塑造了关于英国的舆论。比如你连续 48 小时推 Citizen Vigilante 那部电影。我昨天看了。电影并不好，但它把欧洲画成反乌托邦，美化私刑暴力。我真的觉得你把它放上 X 是不负责任的。

This exercises me because you have really shaped opinion about the UK. For example, your posting for 48 hours of Citizen Vigilante. I watched it yesterday. It’s not a very good movie, but it paints a dystopian picture of Europe and glorifies vigilante violence. I honestly think that it is irresponsible for you to put that up on X.

Elon Musk

我觉得它是一部电影，值得看。你们为什么不多做一点去对抗欧洲的审查？英国有人因为社交媒体帖子进监狱。你觉得那合适吗？

I think it’s a movie and it’s worth watching. Why aren’t you doing more to fight censorship in Europe? There are people in prison in the UK for social media posts. Do you think that’s appropriate?

Zanny Minton Beddoes

不合适。我们写过社论反对。但我不觉得你必须美化私刑暴力，并给你 2.4 亿粉丝描绘一幅完全不准确的欧洲图景。英国在融合移民上其实一直做得很好。有问题，我第一个承认。但那真的不是你在向粉丝描述的那样。

No. And we’ve written editorials against it. But I don’t think you have to glorify vigilante violence and paint an entirely inaccurate picture of Europe to your 240 million followers. The UK has actually been very good at integrating immigrants. There are problems. I’m the first to admit that. But it is not what you are describing.

Elon Musk

我觉得它就是。我觉得我完全正确。

I think it is. No, I think I’m spot on.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

更大的问题是：为什么你关注这个？我们以你描述的那种十年内改变文明的惊人转变开场，而你同时又是社交媒体最糟部落主义的持续参与者。这两幅世界图景怎么合？人们说你是种族主义者。

Why do you focus on this? We started with this civilizational-changing stuff in the next 10 years, and yet you’re also an ongoing participant in the worst kind of tribalism of social media. How does that fit? People say that you’re a racist.

Elon Musk

我不觉得它们不一致。我的伴侣有一半印度血统，我和她有四个孩子。其中一个以一位著名印度物理学家命名。所以我会说我不是种族主义者。再看我公司雇佣的人，我们有各种种族的高管。我不觉得那里有任何种族主义。

I don’t think they’re inconsistent. My partner is half Indian, and I have 4 children with her. One of them was named after a famous Indian physicist. So I would say I’m not racist. And also, if you look at the people employed at my companies, we have senior executives of all races. I don’t think there’s any racism there.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你反穆斯林吗？

Are you anti-Muslim?

Elon Musk

我反对的是：如果人们带着对立的观点来到一个国家，我反对那个。我反对强奸和谋杀。我反对把与我们在西方已接受的东西相反的规则和法律强加过来。我觉得传统媒体像你们不承认这一点，是极大的遗憾。

I am against having — if people are coming to a country with antithetical views, I am against that. I’m against rape and murder. I’m against the imposition of rules and laws that are contrary to what we’ve come to accept in the West. And I think it’s a crying shame that traditional media like you don’t recognize this.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

首先我觉得你极大地夸大了欧洲面临的挑战。其次，在一些领域我完全同意你，比如英国某些地方对言论自由的约束是有问题的。让我担心的是，你支持的人在某些方面相当恶劣。AfD 里 Alice Weidel 我见过，是一个完全有头脑的人。但她的党里有一些真正的新纳粹。你用 2.4 亿粉丝对这种政党的笼统支持，意味着你在欧洲有一种权力，我想你也许没有意识到影响的规模。

First of all, I think that you hugely exaggerate the challenges that Europe faces. Secondly, I completely agree with you that constraints on freedom of speech in the UK in certain areas are problematic. What worries me is that the people you are supporting are really quite vile in some areas. Alice Weidel, whom I’ve met, is a perfectly thoughtful person. But in her party are some real neo-Nazis. Your blanket support of this kind of party with 240 million followers means you have a power in Europe that I think perhaps you don’t realize.

Elon Musk

我希望我正在产生更大的影响。我把它想成作为整体的西方。也许有些人确实憎恶我。那大概是真的——我不在乎。但正如你指出的，有大约 2.5 亿人关注我，我觉得实际喜欢我的人比不喜欢的多得多。而且我觉得憎恶你和媒体的人，比你意识到的多得多。你意识到记者的好感度大概是 15% 吗？鞋穿在另一只脚上。他们恨你远超过恨我。

I hope I am having a bigger impact. I think of it as the West collectively. Maybe some people do loathe me. That’s probably true — I don’t care. But as you pointed out, a quarter billion people follow me. I think a lot more people actually like me than don’t. And I think a lot more people hate you and the media more than you realize. A favorable view of journalists is like 15%. So the shoe is on the other foot. They hate you far more than they hate me.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

我确实知道美国有对新闻业的信任流失。记者犯过错误，我完全承认。但我也觉得社交媒体上的极化环境，被你在 X 上推的那种东西助长了。我们代表的是古典自由价值：担心权力集中，相信个人自由。我一直以为你是古典自由主义者。但当我读你时间线上的帖子，有时会怀疑你是否真的相信那个。

There is certainly a loss of trust in journalism. There have been mistakes by journalists, I totally acknowledge that. But I also think the polarized environment on social media, fostered by the kinds of things you are pushing on X, makes it worse. What we stand for is traditional classical liberal values: we worry about concentrations of power and we believe in individual freedom. I have long thought that you were a classical liberal. But when I read what you post on your feed, I sometimes wonder whether you really do believe in that.

Elon Musk

我字面意义上说过：我相信安全的城市、安全的边境，以及政府方面合理的开支。那一点也不让我变成右翼。

I literally said, look, I believe in safe cities, secure borders, and sensible spending with respect to government. That doesn’t make me right-wing at all, in the least.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

美国和欧洲国家在这三条上谁更好？安全的城市——美国比英国危险得多。合理的开支——这里赤字更大。三条里有两条，欧洲明确处在更好的位置。而你似乎把欧洲画成地狱。

Does the US or do European countries score better on those? Safe cities — much more dangerous in the US than the UK. Sensible spending — bigger deficit here. On 2 out of 3, unequivocally Europe is in a better place. Yet you seem to paint a picture of Europe being a hellhole.

Elon Musk

我不觉得欧洲是地狱。我什么时候说过？这个问题不是美国是否完美。问题是欧洲有没有一个严重且在增长的问题。欧洲有一个严重且在增长的问题。我觉得人们在值班时睡着了，没有意识到问题的量级。我只是在说欧洲必须有安全的边境。不该让大量持有与欧洲已接受观点对立、并且不会有某种安全文化融合的人进来。这只是常识。福利国家给任何来的人提供可观福利时，你就为任何低于那个生活水准的人创造了非常强的经济强迫函数，让他们来欧洲。

I don’t think Europe’s a hellhole. When did I ever say that? The question is not, is America perfect? The question is, does Europe have a serious and growing problem? Europe has a serious and growing problem. I think people are asleep at the switch and do not realize the magnitude of the issue. I’m simply saying that Europe has to have secure borders. And should not let in vast numbers of people with views that are antithetical to the accepted views in Europe and where there will not be some level of safe cultural integration. This is simply common sense. When you have a welfare state that provides substantial benefits to anyone who comes there, you create a very powerful economic forcing function for anyone below that standard of living to come to Europe.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

如果安全边境是你的全部主张，我完全同意。欧洲是迅速老龄化的大陆，移民也带来很多好处。我们能同意完全不受控的边境是坏主意。但我觉得欧洲从受控移民中受益。

If all you are saying is Europe should have secure borders, I completely agree with you. Migration brings a lot of benefits, particularly in a rapidly aging continent. Completely uncontrolled borders are a bad idea. But I think Europe benefits from having controlled immigration.

Elon Musk

我赞成移民。显然，如果我不赞成会很虚伪，因为我自己就是移民到美国的。我赞成移民，如果这个人会成为社会的生产性成员，如果他们诚实，如果他们不会虐待他们要去的那个国家的人。

I’m in favor of immigration. Obviously I’d be hypocritical if I wasn’t, since I’m an immigrant to the United States. I’m in favor of immigration if the person immigrating is going to be a productive member of society, if they’re going to be honest, and if they’re not going to mistreat people in that country they’re going to.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

告诉我，你觉得人们对你误解最深的是什么？

Tell me, what do you think people get most wrong about you?

Elon Musk

你刚刚就弄错了我一整堆事。把过去 20 分钟倒回去，全是错的。我的政治观点非常中间。它们不是极右。坦率说，把它叫成极右，我觉得是对历史的侮辱，是令人愤慨的谎言。我字面意义上陈述过我的立场：需要安全的边境。如果有移民涌入，他们需要是会同意西方理想、西方价值的人。如果长期增长的是不同意、或坚决反对西方价值的人，你就是在给自己设置内战。这很明显。小孩子都看得出。但这不是右翼观点。我只是在陈述现实。我非常善于预测未来。我不完美，但作为一个人，我的打击率非常高。这确实有某种卡桑德拉效应：人们不相信我说的很可能是真的。历史会写下判决。但我觉得你会看到，我说的极少是不准确的。我说的绝大多数非常准确，并且会实现，除非方向有某种改变。

Well, you’ve just got a whole bunch of things wrong about me. Pretty much everything in the last 20 minutes is all wrong. My political views are very centrist. They’re not far right. And frankly, calling it far right is an insult to history, an insult to many peoples, and it is an outrageous falsehood. I have been very clear: there need to be secure borders. If there’s an influx of immigrants, they need to be people who will agree with Western ideals, with Western values. And if there’s a long-term growth of people who do not, or in some cases are adamantly opposed to Western values, you are setting yourself up for civil war. This is obvious. A child can see this. But this is not a right-wing view. I’m simply stating reality. I’m very good at predicting the future. I’m not perfect, but my batting average is very high for a human. This does have somewhat of a Cassandra effect. History will write the verdict. But I think you will see that very little of what I have said is inaccurate. And a supermajority of what I’ve said is very accurate and will come to pass unless there’s some change in direction.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你对对话前半部分 AI 未来的信心，和对后半部分政治部分的信心，哪个更高？

Do you have a higher confidence level in your expectations of the future for AI, the first part of our conversation, or the latter part, the political part?

Elon Musk

AI 是数字超级智能。它被称为奇点，像黑洞，因为你不知道那之后会发生什么。它把一切吸进去。所以在真正大的宏观效应上，我觉得 AI 和机器人会主宰一切，时间尺度不到十年。AI 机器人革命会比英国内战更早发生。我会说英国内战大概在 20 年后。而 AI 机器人奇点在 10 年后。

AI is digital superintelligence. It’s called the singularity, like a black hole, because you don’t know what’s going to happen after that. It sort of sucks in everything. So I think really in terms of the really big macro effects here, AI and robots will really dominate everything, on a timescale that is less than 10 years. The AI robotics revolution will happen sooner than civil war in Britain. I would say civil war in Britain is probably 20 years away. And the AI robot singularity is 10 years away.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

希望这些良性的、全能的 AI 会阻止那种结果。埃隆，我不同意你说的每一件事，但和你谈话总是绝对迷人。非常感谢。

Well, hopefully these benign, all-powerful AIs will prevent such outcomes. Elon, I don’t agree with everything you say, but it’s always absolutely fascinating to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed.

Elon Musk

不客气。我不无聊。

You’re welcome. I’m not boring.

Zanny Minton Beddoes

你绝对不无聊。

You’re definitely not boring.